Unless we place an order by the end of October there is likely to be a considerable delay- quite when even the first 100 million doses will be ready is not known yet and may not be before July 2008.

France I am told has placed an order for 50 million doses because the Mediterranean basin does not want to get BTV-8. Too late, I believe it has appeared in Italy.

In fact the Culicoides species of midge implicated, C obsoletus complex or/and C dewulfi, cover the whole palearctic region, and of course the Mediterranean.  The whole of Europe and Northern Asia can get this infection unless we try to vaccinate in Western Europe and stop it now. (Apparently the BTV-8 sequence we have in N Europe derives from BTV-8 in Nigeria.  This serotype has never been north of the Sahara before.)

What concerns me most of all is that none of the countries has a clear vaccine policy and there will be chaos unless it is EU wide for all the affected countries and the uninfected ones bordering.  Vaccination will also have to be compulsory to have the chance to eliminate BTV-8 infection which at present seems possible (in fact the vaccine manufacturers regard BTV-8 vaccine as a project of 3 to 10 years and not a permanent earner like clostridial vaccines) Proposals being discussed so that the number of vaccine doses may be calculated don't necessarily involve either damping down the virus or its eradication.  

For instance Germany is discussing voluntary vaccination of valuable animals allowing each farmer enough vaccine to vaccinate 10% of his of her herd or flock.  Not only will most of the vaccine be wasted because between 30 and 96% have already been infected, many without symptoms, and there is almost no sero-surveillance of infected herds or flocks, but because 10% is at least 70% too little.  A policy such as this will not affect bluetongue infection next year and there will still be spread from the edge and also by wind borne plumes from the hyper-endemic areas (see maps where the red dots are thickest), from the centres of these areas.  This year the infection not only spread from the edge but also within the area so that any farm uninfected from last year or with susceptible animals (virtually all have some like this year's young) experienced infection this year. Tsunamies of infected female midges can still assail the East and South coasts of Britain.

I do happen to notice a glitch on the UK Bluetongue policy - not only are they proposing to leave sentinel flocks and herds (not appropriate until we are at the stage of testing for elimination of infection perhaps in 2009/2010), but on their policy vaccination is prohibited in the surveillance zone!

I will post my policy on Farmtalking if you would like to see it.  I would like to get it on the CVO's desk.